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... this one a little more far-fetched. None of the pundits seem able to understand why his working-class base stays with him no matter what, despite the fact that he hasn’t made their lives any better, that the safety net they rely on is fraying, that more and more money is flowing away from them and toward the very rich.
Of course something like 30 to 35% will stay with the guy forever. This is not a figure I arrived at by any scientific method; it’s just a number that pops up a lot when you look at whack-job conspiracy theories, or how many people voted for Hitler, or George W.’s approval rating when he left office. A lot of people in Trump’s base were motivated by racism and misogyny, and that’s not going to change.
There’s still about 5 to 10% to be accounted for, though. My guess is that this phenomenon is easier to understand if you don’t think of what’s happening as politics, if you realize that Trump is not a politician but a con-man. And the thing about con-men is that the marks never want to believe they were conned. There are stories of people who still think that Nigerian prince is going to send all that money to their bank account, if they can just surmount one last hurdle. There are stories about people losing their life savings and not reporting it to the police, because they’re too embarrassed to admit they were duped.
I think this group, or some of them anyway, are starting to feel uneasy. Even if they can rationalize all the reporting about corruption and obstruction of justice and ties to Russia as “fake news,” they’re starting to see what the man is really like. You can’t really help noticing that he’s very stupid, that he’s indecisive, that not only is he bad at making deals, he somehow manages to put himself at a disadvantage even before negotiations begin. People who don’t just pay lip-service to morality may be wondering about the porn stars and Playboy models. People who have parents with dementia might be noticing how much he rambles and repeats himself without ever coming to the point.
This is all guesswork, of course, and maybe it’s just something I want to believe. I know very few people who admit to voting for him, and I try not to talk politics with them. But I think some of them might be waking up, taking a deep breath, and starting to examine their beliefs.
Of course something like 30 to 35% will stay with the guy forever. This is not a figure I arrived at by any scientific method; it’s just a number that pops up a lot when you look at whack-job conspiracy theories, or how many people voted for Hitler, or George W.’s approval rating when he left office. A lot of people in Trump’s base were motivated by racism and misogyny, and that’s not going to change.
There’s still about 5 to 10% to be accounted for, though. My guess is that this phenomenon is easier to understand if you don’t think of what’s happening as politics, if you realize that Trump is not a politician but a con-man. And the thing about con-men is that the marks never want to believe they were conned. There are stories of people who still think that Nigerian prince is going to send all that money to their bank account, if they can just surmount one last hurdle. There are stories about people losing their life savings and not reporting it to the police, because they’re too embarrassed to admit they were duped.
I think this group, or some of them anyway, are starting to feel uneasy. Even if they can rationalize all the reporting about corruption and obstruction of justice and ties to Russia as “fake news,” they’re starting to see what the man is really like. You can’t really help noticing that he’s very stupid, that he’s indecisive, that not only is he bad at making deals, he somehow manages to put himself at a disadvantage even before negotiations begin. People who don’t just pay lip-service to morality may be wondering about the porn stars and Playboy models. People who have parents with dementia might be noticing how much he rambles and repeats himself without ever coming to the point.
This is all guesswork, of course, and maybe it’s just something I want to believe. I know very few people who admit to voting for him, and I try not to talk politics with them. But I think some of them might be waking up, taking a deep breath, and starting to examine their beliefs.